MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8635e411138d17e885bbc914dbe2383321ff22fea8e952784ceb4dc1f88b7ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Minnesota Twins, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 10,798$6,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,535.1 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 9,973$4,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,188.82 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 869.14$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.04 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 432.27$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 422.26$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.57 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Minnesota Twins | 21c | 419.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 21c | 392.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 325.68$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.63 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Minnesota Twins | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 216.5$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 193.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Minnesota Twins | 31c | 154.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 148.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 144.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.96 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 125.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 124.27$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Minnesota Twins | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Minnesota Twins | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1852…76ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 68.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Minnesota Twins | 47c | 66.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 66.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 52.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 42.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 40.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 37.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 29.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 27.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 21.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.