MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef02f9dc1fb954edf8ec53ab1c68b1fa1d2f833360c184eccfaad07c9d849ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 3,704$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 50c | 3,593$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.44 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Over | 49c | 707.66$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.75 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 56c | 685.43$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.2 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…499fbacked Under | 53c | 573.9$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 55c | 501.72$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.86 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 55c | 495.35$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.91 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 53c | 455.76$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.76 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 433.15$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.24 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 47c | 415.75$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.4 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 47c | 359.72$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.07 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 40c | 288.9$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 222.1$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 215.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 189.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 46c | 175.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 155.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 143.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 47c | 136.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…b45abacked Under | 53c | 126.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 40c | 126.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 55c | 121.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 41c | 113.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Under | 53c | 92.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5d…adc4backed Under | 54c | 89.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 83.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 44c | 82.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 48c | 80.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 73.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…5da8backed Under | 53c | 70.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 57c | 53.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 41c | 52.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 47c | 51.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 49c | 50.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed Over | 48c | 49.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 43c | 42.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 60c | 39.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d3…98e5backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 45c | 35.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e89…7880backed Under | 55c | 31.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 29.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 79c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 24.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.