MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff33f9eb9c009f3e1e904ae6e25b63efe15cf8e4ca91d4e059d95f47f3a2f1a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 53c | 15,710$8,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,326.05 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 11,307$5,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,766.61 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,992$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.65 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 54c | 1,801$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.4 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 47c | 1,704$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.58 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 1,136$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 48c | 969$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.88 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 870$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 50c | 831.54$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.67 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 47c | 819.53$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.96 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 774.77$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.24 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 724.85$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.29 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 54c | 707.54$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.07 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 47c | 516.05$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.51 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4523…7adebacked Over | 53c | 305.15$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 58c | 301.91$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.22 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 45c | 299.43$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.85 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 46c | 298$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 280 | 49.6%139 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60c…d2e2backed Under | 46c | 294.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.02 | 171 | 51.5%88 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 291.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.84 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Under | 47c | 288.52$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.92 | 319 | 49.5%158 W · 161 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Under | 47c | 288.52$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.92 | 203 | 51.7%105 W · 98 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed Under | 47c | 242.05$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Under | 47c | 231.4$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.64 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 49c | 207.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d9…c125backed Under | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 218 | 56%122 W · 96 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 50c | 197.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 176.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 57c | 170.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Under | 47c | 168.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 258 | 51.9%134 W · 124 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 59c | 165.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Under | 67c | 161.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 159.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Under | 45c | 152.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 406 | 48.5%197 W · 209 L | -13.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Under | 50c | 140.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 137.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 55c | 118.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under | 47c | 117.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 767 | 52.3%401 W · 366 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 47c | 117.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f9…d923backed Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Under | 47c | 74.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Under | 51c | 74.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 45c | 67.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 56c | 66.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…a796backed Over | 49c | 60.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 50c | 59.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 57.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 41c | 56.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 49.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 47c | 49.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 49c | 46.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 53c | 42.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 55c | 42.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 47c | 30.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 457 | 49%224 W · 233 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…0db6backed Under | 46c | 30.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 43c | 30.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 62c | 29.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Under | 44c | 29.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 57c | 28.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…b30ebacked Under | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 53c | 26.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 45c | 26.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x175e…8e46backed Under | 45c | 25.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 45c | 24.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 50c | 24.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 49c | 24.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 59c | 22.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Under | 51c | 21.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Under | 69c | 18.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota TwinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.