Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe88505b6ef485060feaa28be08a04a50d5a902b4ea942bf31ac11c56f2283b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 575.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 25c | 479.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.6 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 7c | 421.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 396.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 308.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 78c | 247.62$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.23 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 225.51$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 206.11$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 194.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 54c | 192.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 12c | 178.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 174.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 169.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 32c | 163.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 43c | 157.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 27c | 154.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e40…ec9dbacked Yes | 24c | 151.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 65c | 149.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.71 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 27c | 138.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 125.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 48c | 125.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 33c | 124.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 121.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.04 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 120.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 120$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 96.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 96.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 92.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2112backed No | 52c | 84.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 40c | 80.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 31c | 64.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 61.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 22c | 60.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 58.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 57.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 42c | 54.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 44c | 54.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 56c | 52.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 46c | 52.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 56c | 51.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 50.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…3bd7backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 39.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 52c | 38.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 37.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 46c | 37.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 35c | 36.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 72c | 34.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 54c | 33.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 69c | 28.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 26.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 71c | 25.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…6734backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 49c | 20.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 17.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 16.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.