Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d656ce370a0cb9284cf126b334730c66f84c7f92eaea2da36c1e6e16bb68606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 0c | 16,418$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 35c | 1,400$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.68 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 569.76$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 39c | 445.06$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.38 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 334$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 68c | 304.07$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.79 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 19c | 293.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 60c | 288.13$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 78c | 265.35$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 264.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 261.37$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 66c | 222.37$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 33c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 199.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 68c | 196$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 195.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 35c | 190.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 187$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 64c | 184.66$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 182.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 174.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 173.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 24c | 164.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 34c | 164.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 162.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 63c | 158.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 67c | 155.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e40…ec9dbacked Yes | 38c | 152.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 145.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 59c | 141.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 36c | 140.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 65c | 136.45$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 134.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 36c | 128.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 36c | 126$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 122.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 119.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 101.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 31c | 98.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 97.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 39c | 95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 94.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed Yes | 41c | 94.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 35c | 93.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 89.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 13c | 88.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 68c | 84.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 17c | 80.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…0426backed Yes | 63c | 72.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 45c | 67.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 33c | 63.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 26c | 61.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…7ab4backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 55.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 21c | 53.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 38c | 52.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 45c | 51.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 65c | 47.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 35c | 46.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 45.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 30c | 44.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 44.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3312…3507backed Yes | 39c | 43.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 42.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 42.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 42c | 42.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…6137backed Yes | 31c | 41.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…912bbacked No | 63c | 41.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…f056backed No | 66c | 41.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 41.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…e7a0backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 39.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 39.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 39.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 38.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10d…8f16backed No | 65c | 38.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd0…b551backed No | 63c | 38.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 37.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb9…7895backed Yes | 63c | 37.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.