Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0c8b0c3b625be5a93a0cf73cb888cdc326a60aa6c00b6a707ea6348f7aa74dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 370.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 21c | 355.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 320.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 286.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 79c | 254.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 253.19$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 229.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 22c | 201$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e40…ec9dbacked Yes | 30c | 199.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 197.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 188.48$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 28c | 166.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 23c | 145.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 70c | 142.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 132.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 23c | 131.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 124.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 78c | 117.48$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 112.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 110.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 20c | 100.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 98.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 92.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 80c | 75.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 67.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 23c | 67.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 80c | 64.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 64.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 64.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 60.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 22c | 59.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 51.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 51.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 34c | 46.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…daa4backed Yes | 33c | 46.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 45.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 39.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 36.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…9d03backed Yes | 34c | 35.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 78c | 35.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 75c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 31.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 30.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 35c | 29.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 78c | 28.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 26.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 67c | 26.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 26.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 20.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 79c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 63c | 19.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 80c | 17.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 80c | 17.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.