Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a0ad48105e08e8c6c70d004b681c94ac413c32311cc529bfadb1a399cd2184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff52…688ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,512$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 27c | 1,159$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.29 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,077$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.23 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…ae3dbacked Yes | 41c | 911.35$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 442.27$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 333.28$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.94 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 320.08$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 289.28$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 232.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 65c | 218.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 53c | 210$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.46 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 33c | 151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 148.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 139.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 23c | 139.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 138.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 36c | 135.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 128.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 128.43$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 31c | 124.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 115.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 111.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 93.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 28c | 79.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 48c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…b01cbacked Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 54c | 74.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 38c | 68.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 30c | 63.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 27c | 57.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 35c | 56.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 65c | 52.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 36c | 51.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 66c | 50.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 48.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 47.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3a55backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 51c | 33.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 31.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1e…b206backed Yes | 35c | 31.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…18cebacked No | 66c | 27.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 65c | 26.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 24.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b3…c118backed No | 67c | 23.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…1225backed No | 66c | 16.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.