Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a578fd217a955333fdd350bc84511dec707e338892298d9dd50cf86541bd57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 1c | 10,015$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 2,714$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,085$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,635$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 5c | 978.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 936.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 4c | 907.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 2c | 714.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 11c | 549.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 3c | 535$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked Yes | 6c | 501.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 6c | 473.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 3c | 469.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 11c | 419.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 69c | 301.15$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked Yes | 8c | 262$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 5c | 255.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 18c | 249.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 247.16$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 34c | 220$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f39…3c00backed Yes | 28c | 217.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 77c | 202.69$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 195.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 174.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 172.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 167$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 154.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 13c | 152.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Yes | 13c | 128.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 13c | 118.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 22c | 104.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 31c | 102.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes | 30c | 101.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 100.36$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 70c | 96.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 31c | 75.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed Yes | 33c | 60.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed Yes | 30c | 50.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432e…8062backed Yes | 36c | 47.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 33c | 36.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 74c | 32.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…a692backed Yes | 34c | 31.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 26.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 72c | 24.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…1decbacked No | 68c | 24.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 71c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked No | 77c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…9aa1backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.