Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39c316170229f79e1872dbbff5d489a2ff6327564acacb83f638ee03c40414f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 0c | 29,605$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.38 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 0c | 20,878$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 0c | 11,333$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 25c | 962.94$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.35 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 32c | 919.22$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.84 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 911.07$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked Yes | 32c | 745.5$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 79c | 734.02$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.85 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 48c | 663.86$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.81 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 31c | 600.89$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.31 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed No | 69c | 408$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 369$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 367.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 31c | 343.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.13 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 65c | 297.98$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 290$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 274.53$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.63 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 258.79$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 247.16$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.48 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 61c | 245.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed Yes | 54c | 238.84$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 7c | 235$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.96 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 227.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 52c | 226.21$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed No | 6c | 208$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 40c | 204.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.53 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 17c | 194.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.25 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 79c | 189.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed Yes | 59c | 170.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.12 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 68c | 164.78$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 62c | 158.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 156.46$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Yes | 75c | 155$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 150.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 149.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 136.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 30c | 127.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 117.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 27c | 116.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed No | 57c | 109$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 38c | 105.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 78c | 103.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.04 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 12c | 101.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 31c | 101.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…6c3cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed Yes | 31c | 95.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 94.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 27c | 94.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…5c87backed Yes | 19c | 92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 40c | 91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 40c | 90.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…7e31backed Yes | 32c | 87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +198.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 42c | 86.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 76c | 84.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 48c | 84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 26c | 83.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 14c | 83.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 32c | 76.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked Yes | 33c | 75.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 38c | 74.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 71.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 58c | 69.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 34c | 69.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 23c | 68.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a39…cf39backed Yes | 29c | 67.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 77c | 67.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 59.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 29c | 57.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 73c | 56.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 53.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 38c | 53.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 59c | 52.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd4…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 57c | 47.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 66c | 41.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 46c | 41.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…e847backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 45c | 38.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 36c | 38.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 55c | 36.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 36.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 44c | 36.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 70c | 35.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 58c | 34.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…c890backed No | 77c | 32.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…bec0backed Yes | 44c | 32.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.