Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffafcf110226e36d27add95eef5b290f30694bbde1e5f84b3bc22a811ef1a1a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 39c | 2,312$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.23 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 50c | 1,826$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.12 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,362$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.9 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 61c | 1,356$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.02 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed No | 44c | 1,276$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.56 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 930.84$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 10c | 735.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 10c | 638.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…0f8fbacked No | 64c | 578.15$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 551.03$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.37 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 41c | 543.77$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.11 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 38c | 458.93$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 64c | 410.16$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.11 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496d…a2f2backed Yes | 3c | 403.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…7d78backed Yes | 14c | 395.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 64c | 382.16$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.53 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 33c | 367.01$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.76 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 34c | 335$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 70c | 325.74$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 311.21$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 32c | 303.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.1 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…dbb3backed No | 75c | 267.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 5c | 242.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 22c | 241.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 240.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 16c | 234.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 11c | 224.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 223.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 54c | 222.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 54c | 221.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…3d58backed Yes | 70c | 214.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 43c | 211.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 8c | 202$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 33c | 201.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4bcfbacked Yes | 62c | 199.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 52c | 199.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 54c | 185.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 65c | 183.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed Yes | 17c | 174.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 166.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 67c | 164.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 160.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 65c | 154.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 73c | 153.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 76c | 150.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 52c | 143.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…fc2fbacked Yes | 36c | 136$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 21c | 135$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked No | 71c | 134.26$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 53c | 132.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 14c | 125.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed No | 66c | 124.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes | 76c | 122.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 23c | 121.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 15c | 119.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 39c | 108.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 61c | 106.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…4532backed Yes | 75c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.77 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 38c | 88.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 14c | 88.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 84.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0a…a70bbacked Yes | 67c | 80.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 73c | 80.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked No | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3a…d3c4backed Yes | 67c | 79.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 15c | 78.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 39c | 76.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…d481backed Yes | 70c | 71.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 54c | 65.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 32c | 63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…1b09backed Yes | 68c | 58.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 28c | 52.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 69c | 48.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 63c | 48.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 46.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 72c | 41.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…e847backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 43c | 39.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 74c | 38.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 67c | 37.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 60c | 35.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.