Fifa International · resolved market
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8dc7efbb4baeec48073f3e124de58469bad7d89c62fd40fbc05f2dc7fc74310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 15,000$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…c559backed Yes | 5c | 1,923$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 7c | 1,380$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 6c | 1,132$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…bc8ebacked Yes | 5c | 817.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed Yes | 7c | 686.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 535 | 14.6%78 W · 457 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…bae9backed Yes | 5c | 600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…cfefbacked Yes | 5c | 506.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 27.2%34 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6925…d76dbacked Yes | 5c | 384.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 373.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…be02backed Yes | 6c | 357.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b96…4a58backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…b472backed Yes | 6c | 340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8970…f311backed Yes | 6c | 335.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…2698backed Yes | 6c | 262.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2634…e1aabacked Yes | 5c | 240$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82c…342fbacked Yes | 5c | 230.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…c77ebacked Yes | 8c | 206.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 78c | 29.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsthis page
- Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsNo won
- Enzo Fernández: 3+ goalsNo won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goalsYes won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goalsNo won
- Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assistsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goalsNo won
- Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- José Manuel López: 3+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ assistsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julián Álvarez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsYes won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assistsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goalsNo won
- Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
- Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsNo won
- Nicolás Paz: 1+ assistsNo won
- Nicolás Paz: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nicolás Paz: 2+ assistsNo won
- Nicolás Paz: 3+ goalsNo won
- Thiago Almada: 1+ shotsYes won
- Thiago Almada: 3+ goalsNo won
- Yazeed Abulaila: 2+ savesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.