Lionel Messi: 2+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x084cd7505829281582daa154087bad9562aa90ed43471c16fccc3f1cce893fbf

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $48,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $48,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,042 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd81e…e3d0backed Yes	11c	11,548$1,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,264.86	165	46.1%76 W · 89 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes	14c	5,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.99	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-52%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	11c	3,045$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.54	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Yes	11c	2,137$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.08	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Yes	11c	1,878$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.56	280	25%70 W · 210 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes	9c	1,193$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.68	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x310d…4decbacked Yes	12c	903.33$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.84	101	42.6%43 W · 58 L	-5.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Yes	10c	795$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.4	198	23.7%47 W · 151 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	14c	698.63$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.77	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8970…f311backed Yes	12c	597.4$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14eb…2e34backed Yes	35c	500$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.5	274	33.9%93 W · 181 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x320f…bae9backed Yes	17c	499.99$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4751…c559backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	48	45.8%22 W · 26 L	+4.5wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	14c	447.34$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.8	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	17c	443.01$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	535	14.6%78 W · 457 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4296…fca1backed Yes	11c	439.91$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.39	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fc0…8ccebacked Yes	11c	428.41$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.06	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82e…67d2backed Yes	17c	296.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…5af0backed Yes	14c	284.66$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	309	28.8%89 W · 220 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2572…4514backed Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2d…048ebacked No	79c	249.99$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-26%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes	10c	245.34$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.99	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe270…eab5backed Yes	16c	227.96$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.73	241	36.9%89 W · 152 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No	80c	211$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.2	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes	17c	201.52$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	125	27.2%34 W · 91 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed40…e2f4backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	20cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x517b…be02backed Yes	15c	195.63$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+3.4wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes	13c	193.82$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.96	1,206	32.7%394 W · 812 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6628…c77ebacked Yes	18c	193.02$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ab…0dc8backed Yes	13c	192.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	165	35.2%58 W · 107 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b36…d80cbacked Yes	13c	192.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	186	41.9%78 W · 108 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe68a…a5a7backed Yes	11c	188.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	31.9%15 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x954e…f704backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8aa…e4d1backed Yes	24c	175.69$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	251	50.6%127 W · 124 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff38…738dbacked Yes	11c	167.91$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	114	41.2%47 W · 67 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…fd82backed Yes	11c	157.21$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	213	34.3%73 W · 140 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe22f…8b69backed Yes	9c	155.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f19…77e3backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes	17c	147.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	300	32.3%97 W · 203 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d4…a216backed Yes	11c	141.64$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked Yes	22c	136.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	283	26.1%74 W · 209 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2814…b0ccbacked Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	177	38.4%68 W · 109 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	133	28.6%38 W · 95 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc53a…ae86backed Yes	24c	124.75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.94	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x500e…bd16backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	168	36.9%62 W · 106 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	14c	114.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.49	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe896…2698backed Yes	14c	114.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x497c…8d1fbacked Yes	9c	113.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+2.5wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d73…4598backed Yes	17c	112.82$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c9…4c22backed Yes	28c	101.57$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	160	32.5%52 W · 108 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56b2…2ce1backed Yes	11c	99.92$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.49	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72e2…1d2abacked Yes	10c	98.75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	20c	98.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Yes	23c	94.58$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	432	46.8%202 W · 230 L	+12.2wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	11c	94.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	512	28.9%148 W · 364 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa3c…40e5backed Yes	12c	89.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+4.5wins	+0.24per pick	40cpaid	+47.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x333b…62dabacked Yes	27c	80$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x561e…c991backed Yes	22c	77.27$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	109	38.5%42 W · 67 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x016c…99a8backed Yes	25c	60$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5591…ab00backed Yes	26c	57.69$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	31cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa55e…7536backed Yes	27c	51.85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No	78c	45.45$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	153	32%49 W · 104 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-28%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb147…3786backed No	76c	39$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.36	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	56cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked No	74c	36.71$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.5	38	65.8%25 W · 13 L	+4.9wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x726a…196bbacked No	45c	35$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.25	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+5.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No	74c	27.01$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.94	198	62.1%123 W · 75 L	+8.7wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed No	78c	23.2$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.1	75	45.3%34 W · 41 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	78c	16.07$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.47	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lionel Messi: 2+ goalsthis page
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 3+ goalsNo won
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goalsYes won
Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goalsNo won
Giovani Lo Celso: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assistsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goalsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goalsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
José Manuel López: 3+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 2+ assistsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 3+ goalsNo won
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goalsYes won
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assistsNo won
Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goalsNo won
Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goalsNo won
Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsNo won
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsYes won
Lionel Messi: 3+ goalsNo won
Nicolás Paz: 1+ assistsNo won
Nicolás Paz: 1+ goalsNo won
Nicolás Paz: 2+ assistsNo won
Nicolás Paz: 3+ goalsNo won
Thiago Almada: 1+ shotsYes won
Thiago Almada: 3+ goalsNo won
Yazeed Abulaila: 2+ savesNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lionel Messi: 2+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event