MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe90ef7449345f74c6f826adccd77d506cd573dcafd519fad395d91cb52f42bbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 31c | 729.38$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.31 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 643.23$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.23 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 567.47$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.13 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 473.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.88 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 334.21$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.18 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 213.35$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 127.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 76.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 67.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc389…d228backed Baltimore Orioles | 17c | 60.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 49.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 49.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 49.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 43.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 43.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 42.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 39.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 29.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 28.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…fb2dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 24.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 22.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 22.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 20.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 80c | 15.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.