NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe924523b0b3b67b1bc5ba2e07b40975e20ccacb093661bcf71f31cd232084085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Timberwolves, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 4,662$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,330.88 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 50c | 4,469$2,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…e7aabacked Timberwolves | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lakers | 50c | 1,475$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Timberwolves | 47c | 975$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.69 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Lakers | 53c | 806$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.94 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Lakers | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Timberwolves | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Lakers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 199.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Lakers | 45c | 151$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Lakers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Timberwolves | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Lakers | 52c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Timberwolves | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Lakers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 50c | 37.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Lakers | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…d4ecbacked Lakers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)this page
- Lakers vs. TimberwolvesLakers won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.