NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e7dbc3d3a394bfd128b0f879ea8d110dd2e41c1d18802a5bdbecb384c40dd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Timberwolves, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Lakers | 47c | 10,996$5,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,785.81 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Lakers | 48c | 8,229$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,279.17 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 5,939$3,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,087.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Timberwolves | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Lakers | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.99 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 3,945$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.38 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 52c | 1,326$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…38e7backed Timberwolves | 51c | 1,124$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 1,047$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.5 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…2876backed Timberwolves | 51c | 731$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…a436backed Lakers | 49c | 681$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f69…a95dbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 621$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e02…647abacked Lakers | 49c | 621$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96f…f711backed Lakers | 49c | 598$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…716cbacked Lakers | 49c | 533$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd698…44e0backed Lakers | 49c | 503$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…0932backed Timberwolves | 51c | 460$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…e420backed Lakers | 49c | 433$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…31c0backed Lakers | 49c | 432$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…ec0ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 431$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 330$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…f1cebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 306.33$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…195abacked Timberwolves | 52c | 232$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8187…c59ebacked Lakers | 48c | 231$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6d…69ffbacked Lakers | 48c | 230$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d2…e13dbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 229$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 226$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Timberwolves | 53c | 213.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Timberwolves | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 52c | 113.95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…535dbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 106.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…990fbacked Lakers | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Timberwolves | 52c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…41c1backed Timberwolves | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Lakers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Lakers | 49c | 27.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Lakers | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Timberwolves | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Timberwolves | 51c | 20.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)this page
- Lakers vs. TimberwolvesLakers won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.