MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe967d5415be94d1e40df239f2a771bddd824b365f1dbdb9f51eb2f2ff3b5a792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 41c | 6,063$2,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,578.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 6,002$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 816.09$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.47 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 35c | 665.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.05 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 77c | 541.19$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros | 27c | 454.52$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.28 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 450.81$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago White Sox | 74c | 199.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…b7d4backed Chicago White Sox | 26c | 139.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago White Sox | 28c | 72.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Chicago White Sox | 73c | 61.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 49.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3589…35c0backed Houston Astros | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Houston Astros | 80c | 17.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Chicago White Sox | 73c | 13.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…4d1abacked Chicago White Sox | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.