TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,986
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,986 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Over56c1,903$1,065 inLost-$1,064.7611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under42c1,208$504 inWon+$703.3512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under44c1,024$451 inWon+$573.442,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under45c244.46$110 inWon+$134.453,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over20c204.43$41 inLost-$40.698,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under44c173.26$76 inWon+$97.2644245.5%201 W · 241 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over48c154.88$74 inLost-$73.611,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under44c150.34$66 inWon+$83.951,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under80c150$120 inWon+$309,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under43c147.3$63 inWon+$84.031,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over58c141.94$83 inLost-$82.822,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Under44c77.1$34 inWon+$43.2595252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Under41c69.63$29 inWon+$41.0813048.5%63 W · 67 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under77c69.43$54 inWon+$15.751,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked Under42c67.1$28 inWon+$38.9210143.6%44 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under73c55.74$41 inWon+$15.0510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Under44c51.18$23 inWon+$28.6652750.1%264 W · 263 L+19.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under42c50.2$21 inWon+$29.1273355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over29c50$15 inLost-$14.55,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under42c49.99$21 inWon+$28.992,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under42c42.76$18 inWon+$24.842451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Over49c24.08$12 inLost-$11.887370.1%612 W · 261 L+91.6wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+14.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over58c18.2$11 inLost-$10.565,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.