MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf73a912e752905903446c6f50421758cdf1f84a71d0419dca657f17aced08e8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 14,808$7,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,534.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 5,441$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 2,904$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.85 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 2,067$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.35 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 1,652$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Under | 49c | 1,542$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.64 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,045$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.73 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 1,024$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 168 | 48.2%81 W · 87 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 51c | 974.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 14c | 770.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 705.35$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 49c | 408.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.17 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 357.08$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.83 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 50c | 306.12$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.06 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 49c | 288$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.32 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 52c | 232$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 51c | 202.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Under | 50c | 188.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Over | 51c | 185.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 51c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 51c | 156.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 18c | 150.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 51c | 149.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 17c | 141.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 128.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 124.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 50c | 116.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…8aacbacked Over | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 100.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 51c | 98.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 51c | 98.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 86.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 80.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Under | 49c | 69.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 51c | 64.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 76c | 57.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 50c | 50.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 63c | 46.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 48c | 44.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…0d85backed Under | 70c | 42.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 50c | 41.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda2b…5e60backed Over | 51c | 39.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Under | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…e580backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 26.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Over | 46c | 26.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 48c | 22.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Under | 49c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.