MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc965098c2acd64378b041fa12daa631e3fc378b54837eb6a4f26d3485380874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Houston Astros | 64c | 16,654$10,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,995.27 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 36c | 11,286$4,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,037.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 6,218$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.36 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Houston Astros | 64c | 3,130$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.8 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 27c | 1,770$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 64c | 1,311$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Houston Astros | 73c | 1,302$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.17 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 1,033$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.63 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 680$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros | 64c | 585$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 69c | 464.01$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.25 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 330$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 324.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 314.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 31c | 287.44$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 234.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago White Sox | 35c | 179.89$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 157$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 132.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago White Sox | 34c | 121.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Houston Astros | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Chicago White Sox | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 82.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 79.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Houston Astros | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Houston Astros | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Houston Astros | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…f290backed Houston Astros | 70c | 48.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Houston Astros | 64c | 36.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Houston Astros | 64c | 33.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago White Sox | 35c | 33.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Houston Astros | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Houston Astros | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Houston Astros | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Houston Astros | 65c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 28.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros | 72c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Houston Astros | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -8.9wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Houston Astros | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Houston Astros | 64c | 17.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.