Tennis · resolved market
Split: Lukas Neumayer vs Juan Martin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe96b6c12b10b10bd43c77bb708f66c10de3672b0c44ed55866c082bc67fedf8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lukas Neumayerof Lukas Neumayer, Juan Martin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,107 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04fe…3688backed Lukas Neumayer | 80c | 30,000$24,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Juan Martin | 17c | 19,842$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,373.19 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Juan Martin | 24c | 12,904$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.33 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Lukas Neumayer | 67c | 1,725$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.55 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c6…6daabacked Juan Martin | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Lukas Neumayer | 72c | 1,488$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.23 | 655 | 58.9%386 W · 269 L | -32.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da3…5a49backed Lukas Neumayer | 74c | 805.83$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.83 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Juan Martin | 29c | 711.6$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 244 | 38.9%95 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Juan Martin | 28c | 523.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.71 | 349 | 50.4%176 W · 173 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Lukas Neumayer | 71c | 453.45$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Juan Martin | 33c | 334.1$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Lukas Neumayer | 71c | 280.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Juan Martin | 33c | 280$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -63%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Juan Martin | 23c | 262.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Juan Martin | 20c | 246.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 223.85$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 725 | 42.6%309 W · 416 L | -20.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 208.69$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 472 | 52.1%246 W · 226 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Juan Martin | 22c | 198$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Lukas Neumayer | 75c | 196.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 958 | 46.6%446 W · 512 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Juan Martin | 24c | 165.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 279 | 40.1%112 W · 167 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Juan Martin | 23c | 162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Juan Martin | 23c | 161$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Lukas Neumayer | 76c | 156.08$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Juan Martin | 30c | 154.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6657…8e4fbacked Lukas Neumayer | 74c | 153.21$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Lukas Neumayer | 66c | 126.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 307 | 44.6%137 W · 170 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Juan Martin | 14c | 124$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Lukas Neumayer | 61c | 115.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Lukas Neumayer | 70c | 100.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Juan Martin | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 460 | 40%184 W · 276 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Juan Martin | 24c | 95.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Juan Martin | 29c | 95.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 163 | 69.3%113 W · 50 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6ba6backed Juan Martin | 28c | 94.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Juan Martin | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 13.7%18 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208b…9613backed Juan Martin | 36c | 85.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…64f4backed Juan Martin | 24c | 83.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Juan Martin | 31c | 82.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Lukas Neumayer | 58c | 80.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 711 | 65.1%463 W · 248 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Juan Martin | 24c | 74.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Lukas Neumayer | 59c | 72.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…94d1backed Juan Martin | 34c | 68.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Juan Martin | 23c | 61.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 572 | 52.3%299 W · 273 L | +17.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Lukas Neumayer | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 384 | 60.4%232 W · 152 L | +29.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Juan Martin | 34c | 56.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 371 | 56.3%209 W · 162 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Lukas Neumayer | 78c | 55.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Lukas Neumayer | 67c | 50.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Lukas Neumayer | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 882 | 73.5%648 W · 234 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…4632backed Juan Martin | 31c | 47.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…224cbacked Juan Martin | 29c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…6cecbacked Lukas Neumayer | 78c | 45.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…effdbacked Juan Martin | 33c | 43.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15cc…6268backed Juan Martin | 46c | 33.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Lukas Neumayer | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 524 | 57.4%301 W · 223 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Lukas Neumayer | 50c | 29.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe07…ba72backed Lukas Neumayer | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Lukas Neumayer | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Lukas Neumayer | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…e4d9backed Lukas Neumayer | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Lukas Neumayer | 69c | 15.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Split: Lukas Neumayer vs Juan Martinthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Neumayer vs MartinNeumayer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.