TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Astros vs. Marlins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astrosof Astros, Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,451,597
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,450,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,451,597 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 292 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x461f…7a07backed Astros46c1,180,917$542,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638,250.7912043.3%52 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Marlins54c520,069$280,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280,837.181,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Marlins54c503,500$272,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272,239.9744456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Marlins54c43,700$23,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,59822852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Astros48c40,232$19,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,121.6586751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Astros45c35,000$15,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,249.9860249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Marlins55c29,054$15,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,979.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Marlins55c25,000$13,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,75038047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Astros45c20,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,00056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Marlins54c17,335$9,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,361.11,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3d…f0c9backed Astros45c12,000$5,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5501090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+75%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Marlins8c11,574$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.8518837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Astros47c11,518$5,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,08033845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Marlins55c11,127$6,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,097.3935952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Astros48c10,515$5,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,483.041,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…77bfbacked Marlins53c10,367$5,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,481.4615553.5%83 W · 72 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Marlins54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40011150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Marlins54c7,900$4,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2661,15349.2%567 W · 586 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033b…2f6bbacked Marlins5c7,799$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.962725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Marlins52c5,900$3,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,068.0439456.9%224 W · 170 L-0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa348…e205backed Marlins54c4,998$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Marlins54c4,965$2,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.7525453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Marlins54c4,220$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.5395950.1%480 W · 479 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42d9…0293backed Marlins55c4,200$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Astros46c3,926$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.4224248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9edc…a0c0backed Marlins54c3,900$2,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,106966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+50.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins54c3,690$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.532,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db4…cc65backed Marlins54c3,500$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.981163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Marlins55c2,973$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.316551.5%85 W · 80 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Marlins55c2,803$1,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.6526355.5%146 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Marlins55c2,724$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.1933554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Astros46c2,670$1,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.5770946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Marlins51c2,496$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.071,35850.8%690 W · 668 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Marlins2c2,308$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.254754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Marlins55c2,210$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.543654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked Astros47c2,149$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.76749.3%33 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Astros46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb33…9d2fbacked Astros45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Marlins55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006536.9%24 W · 41 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Astros75c1,795$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.780680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Astros74c1,648$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.389,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Astros48c1,564$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.1926949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf26…d436backed Marlins55c1,455$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.25944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d9…b3b1backed Marlins52c1,417$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92bc…5f95backed Astros45c1,200$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb586…c203backed Astros45c1,200$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…d3d0backed Marlins55c1,156$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.189550.5%48 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Astros48c1,064$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.0788549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Astros46c1,050$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5671,01251.2%518 W · 494 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4e4…2b48backed Marlins55c1,027$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.85650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Astros45c1,000$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55049650.2%249 W · 247 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Marlins52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5205050%25 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Astros48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52038249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Marlins55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55012939.5%51 W · 78 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1957…7656backed Marlins5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-85.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d30…cde3backed Marlins55c973$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x696d…fae5backed Marlins55c945$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e08…df98backed Marlins55c944.55$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2434…9b23backed Astros46c944.41$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Astros44c938.85$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.7654051.1%276 W · 264 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Astros45c919.95$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.9762346.2%288 W · 335 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Marlins31c919.9$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.3843946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c3…b342backed Marlins55c911.47$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.31425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f1…4596backed Astros46c911.35$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22ab…3bb0backed Marlins55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Astros46c862$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.8585047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Astros48c840.61$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.475,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be9…97ecbacked Marlins55c800$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4405667.9%38 W · 18 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x93a5…1e74backed Astros49c794.71$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.3520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Marlins55c791.47$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.3125551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Astros46c688.94$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.531,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Marlins6c668.37$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4027213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67fd…2b74backed Marlins54c655.87$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.1716651.8%86 W · 80 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe852…0235backed Marlins55c636.36$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501118.2%2 W · 9 L-4.0wins-0.37per pick55cpaid-68.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Astros46c608.65$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.678940.4%36 W · 53 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66cc…d87abacked Marlins54c600$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3241275%9 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+51.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Astros64c594.41$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3616051.9%83 W · 77 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb865…041bbacked Marlins55c531.85$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.52837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5d5…fc86backed Astros46c527.41$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+32.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25e…39aabacked Astros46c500$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702045%9 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick63cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Astros47c499.96$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.9830850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Marlins52c480.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508366.3%55 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Astros46c472.11$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.9412949.6%64 W · 65 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Astros45c469$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.951,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Marlins54c460$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.49245.7%42 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Astros46c450$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24327733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Astros63c444.3$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.934,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0709…f2edbacked Marlins55c401.82$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2215950.8%30 W · 29 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Astros46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2161,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Astros46c397.89$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8634550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Marlins3c389.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.910849.1%53 W · 55 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Astros59c380.76$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5238444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Astros46c374.23$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.651347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Marlins55c365$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7592050%460 W · 460 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Marlins55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20066645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Marlins55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Marlins55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…f075backed Marlins55c347.88$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Marlins5c333.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.651,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Astros46c327.2$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.6919852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.