Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9831e96de30dde50a5c0ff55c41ddb8e9ab4d8d721f9828c4b3177198b83cb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 73c | 999.95$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 27c | 903.39$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…2715backed Over | 25c | 554.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…e800backed Under | 73c | 547.44$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 28c | 304.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 302.98$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Over | 28c | 186$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 72c | 123.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 72c | 94.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 393 | 54.2%213 W · 180 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 73c | 64.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…fd3cbacked Under | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 73c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Bologna FC 1909 O/U 0.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Bologna FC 1909 O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 0.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio O/U 0.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.