Serie A · resolved market
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x648bab1ee2e0e5c6f21d13eaaa47fbffe9f5591fd4192ce96945f10646bed285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $242,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 9c | 20,495$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,817.73 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…9adabacked Over | 66c | 13,377$8,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,482.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 29c | 6,051$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.2 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 5,748$1,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,623.41 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 80c | 5,726$4,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.53 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 9c | 4,641$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.17 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Over | 72c | 3,854$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 8c | 2,570$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…1eeebacked Over | 63c | 2,539$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Under | 11c | 2,136$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 10c | 2,132$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa3…e22bbacked Over | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…1e01backed Over | 80c | 1,231$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 36c | 1,212$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 9c | 1,035$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 5c | 698.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…7047backed Under | 10c | 692.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Over | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 29c | 499.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…6dfdbacked Over | 80c | 499.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 9c | 494$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 17c | 397.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…8445backed Under | 11c | 342.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 23c | 313.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Under | 10c | 285.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 29c | 278.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 8c | 226.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Under | 10c | 214.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…c4ebbacked Over | 71c | 139.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…490ebacked Over | 76c | 122.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedc…36c0backed Under | 11c | 104.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 72c | 99.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 35c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…d463backed Over | 71c | 46.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 36c | 31.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 66c | 29.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…a0dabacked Over | 62c | 21.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5af6…842ebacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab4…f8c6backed Over | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 0.5this page
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Bologna FC 1909 O/U 0.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Bologna FC 1909 O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 5.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio O/U 0.5Over won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio O/U 1.5Under won
- Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: SS Lazio O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)Bologna FC 1909 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.