TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof Wildcard, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$133,789

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,234 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Wildcard38c7,526$2,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,845.551,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Gentle Mates39c3,710$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.9269445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Gentle Mates54c3,700$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70521953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Wildcard53c3,381$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.214,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed Gentle Mates44c3,341$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.4810056%56 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Gentle Mates52c2,802$1,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.841,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Wildcard49c2,582$1,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.453,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Wildcard51c2,500$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.522,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Wildcard66c2,500$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.8692456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Wildcard52c2,129$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.472,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Wildcard37c2,112$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.584,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Wildcard28c1,855$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.462,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Wildcard51c1,522$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.946,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Wildcard38c1,509$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.661034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Wildcard45c1,404$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.321,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Wildcard48c1,356$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.471,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked Gentle Mates47c1,278$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.7714659.6%87 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Wildcard48c1,216$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.212,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed Gentle Mates78c1,175$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.4819057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Gentle Mates34c929.41$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.4115637.2%58 W · 98 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Wildcard21c739.66$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.493,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Wildcard39c682.87$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.5942154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Gentle Mates59c680.47$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.0452150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Gentle Mates53c565.49$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.491,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc7d…2c2cbacked Gentle Mates55c532.49$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.352751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Gentle Mates49c499.99$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25594645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Wildcard28c480.59$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4140140.6%163 W · 238 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Gentle Mates48c450$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23313354.9%73 W · 60 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed Gentle Mates49c443$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.938045%36 W · 44 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af1…8bd4backed Wildcard51c375.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.765143.1%22 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd166…e432backed Gentle Mates53c369.65$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.081637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51cf…45fbbacked Wildcard42c334$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.452240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04c3…ef7cbacked Gentle Mates58c319.1$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.091435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-37.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe123…b4ffbacked Gentle Mates65c309.22$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.238548.2%41 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Wildcard21c307$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.842,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Gentle Mates55c291.82$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3226624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Wildcard49c279.09$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.882,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Wildcard63c268.82$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17040558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Gentle Mates59c262.61$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.879063.3%57 W · 33 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Gentle Mates53c257.03$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.520046%92 W · 108 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc48f…37f1backed Gentle Mates53c250.2$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…5ce4backed Gentle Mates56c249.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11014949%73 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Gentle Mates77c212.57$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.263157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc9f…45debacked Wildcard52c207.11$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.799341.9%39 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Gentle Mates57c205.26$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2653034.7%184 W · 346 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Wildcard48c201.05$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.294,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Gentle Mates56c199.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.41,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Gentle Mates60c199.98$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9935861.7%221 W · 137 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68e9…845cbacked Gentle Mates51c194.12$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1230236.8%111 W · 191 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefe8…1edbbacked Gentle Mates55c185.77$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7710151.5%52 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Gentle Mates57c183.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.362,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Wildcard44c180.06$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.244,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c4…74bbbacked Gentle Mates56c178.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.074355.8%24 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeadd…e3d7backed Wildcard53c175$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb15…5485backed Gentle Mates50c172.48$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.52683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Gentle Mates46c167.13$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.043,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed Gentle Mates41c162.76$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0335148.1%169 W · 182 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…3ff8backed Gentle Mates65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.513649.3%67 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Wildcard24c144$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.813219.7%26 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Gentle Mates42c142.63$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3540137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x196e…9277backed Gentle Mates57c138.25$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.982458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed Wildcard33c138$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.547855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaa5…4859backed Wildcard33c138$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.543959%23 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0373…3e8cbacked Gentle Mates37c135.31$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.319257.6%53 W · 39 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Wildcard21c132.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.272,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c60…1129backed Gentle Mates54c127.91$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.326141%25 W · 36 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Gentle Mates59c118.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6465662.3%409 W · 247 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed Wildcard24c103.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1558745%264 W · 323 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccdc…dbe6backed Gentle Mates49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.0436749.3%181 W · 186 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Wildcard41c99.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9930349.8%151 W · 152 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Gentle Mates51c98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.751,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d9…fa69backed Wildcard53c94.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x180a…bd66backed Gentle Mates59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7516355.2%90 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Gentle Mates61c76.02$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4772353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Gentle Mates52c74.71$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4940666.3%269 W · 137 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Gentle Mates57c63.39$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3924260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e28…8b3abacked Gentle Mates55c62.67$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…8d97backed Gentle Mates58c61.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.932662%202 W · 124 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef0…b68abacked Gentle Mates59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.64753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f20…934fbacked Gentle Mates59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.632463%204 W · 120 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb188…8be3backed Wildcard36c55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.924558%142 W · 103 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab6…4880backed Wildcard46c54.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2559354.8%325 W · 268 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x784c…fcb9backed Gentle Mates55c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.882040%8 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Wildcard50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2519347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Wildcard48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.192,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Gentle Mates36c47.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0167547.3%319 W · 356 L-9.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Wildcard44c46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0447856.7%271 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Wildcard40c45.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.225973%18 W · 579 L-221.0wins-0.37per pick40cpaid-90.7%equal weight11-0.36 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Gentle Mates49c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.665548.9%320 W · 335 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4011…4a39backed Wildcard51c41.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218038.8%31 W · 49 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed Gentle Mates47c38.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5927248.9%133 W · 139 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked Gentle Mates48c33.47$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.37360.3%44 W · 29 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf596…45e8backed Gentle Mates57c30.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.93580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed Gentle Mates57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.948943.6%213 W · 276 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Gentle Mates55c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.580741.3%333 W · 474 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Gentle Mates50c28.94$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.554746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked Gentle Mates41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7585054.4%462 W · 388 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd13c…98a7backed Wildcard56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.085554.5%30 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb09f…6382backed Wildcard40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108236.6%30 W · 52 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Gentle Mates52c24.61$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.764257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.