TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gentle Matesof Wildcard, Gentle Mates
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,710
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,710 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Wildcard61c10,992$6,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,755.1836453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Gentle Mates64c9,670$6,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,458.6863157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Wildcard39c4,125$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.5422241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Wildcard54c3,998$2,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.541,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Gentle Mates60c3,640$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.851,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Gentle Mates50c3,268$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.274,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Wildcard55c2,750$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.9921953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Gentle Mates38c2,632$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.5824038.3%92 W · 148 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Gentle Mates50c2,397$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.312,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Wildcard43c2,300$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.855240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Gentle Mates46c2,185$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.213,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Gentle Mates74c2,179$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.99742.3%41 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Wildcard22c2,004$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.272,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Gentle Mates37c1,984$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.0261034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Gentle Mates38c1,916$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.8840137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Gentle Mates65c1,812$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.931,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed Gentle Mates78c1,510$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.5916038.1%61 W · 99 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Gentle Mates60c1,472$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.792,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Gentle Mates74c1,372$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.3528037.9%106 W · 174 L-17.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gentle Mates54c1,267$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.945,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Wildcard64c1,202$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.8113454.5%73 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Wildcard35c1,148$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.1322449.6%111 W · 113 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Wildcard25c1,118$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.476,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Wildcard51c1,027$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.3822750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Wildcard32c1,021$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.774,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Wildcard26c995.71$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.83,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked Gentle Mates37c971.37$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.3715637.2%58 W · 98 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…3988backed Gentle Mates70c873.98$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.7822053.2%117 W · 103 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Wildcard63c793.65$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019357%110 W · 83 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Gentle Mates61c782.93$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.311,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6277backed Gentle Mates71c684.88$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.011050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Gentle Mates70c578.45$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.841475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Wildcard47c521.73$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.82,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Gentle Mates40c509.99$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30652150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7f…ab9ebacked Gentle Mates38c504$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.482147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Wildcard51c500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25519546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Gentle Mates42c500$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2905,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Wildcard61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30522266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Wildcard62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31035744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gentle Mates38c465.44$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.872,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1e…5bb5backed Gentle Mates72c465$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.217553.3%40 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd166…e432backed Wildcard37c456.76$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1691637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc9f…45debacked Wildcard60c443.41$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.019341.9%39 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Gentle Mates37c424.91$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.6937157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked Gentle Mates38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24894645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Gentle Mates61c352.9$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.194,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Gentle Mates45c349.59$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19385851.6%443 W · 415 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75c7…fcccbacked Gentle Mates37c299.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9920444.1%90 W · 114 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae2…90afbacked Gentle Mates67c299.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.92157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Gentle Mates76c256.89$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.652,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Gentle Mates50c250.74$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.0342154.6%230 W · 191 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0197…1718backed Wildcard62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked Wildcard40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10065650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Wildcard45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.530349.8%151 W · 152 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Gentle Mates44c233$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.487536%27 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Wildcard39c222.62$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7243152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04c3…ef7cbacked Wildcard69c216.98$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.31435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-37.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d1c…8408backed Gentle Mates53c214.77$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.779247.8%44 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed Wildcard44c211.28$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.658745%264 W · 323 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa5…4859backed Gentle Mates56c210.34$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.553959%23 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Wildcard51c207.91$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0620046%92 W · 108 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ae…84d8backed Wildcard29c203$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3813219.7%26 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Wildcard36c202.28$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.124,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b2…70f0backed Gentle Mates48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10442831.3%134 W · 294 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Wildcard39c199.98$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2266…138abacked Gentle Mates50c195.79$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.94139%16 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfeb…763ebacked Gentle Mates45c193.33$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3313742.3%58 W · 79 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Gentle Mates44c183.43$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.43,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdde5…d1acbacked Wildcard59c180$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.117045.7%32 W · 38 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Gentle Mates65c175.61$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.41,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Gentle Mates68c171.17$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.281,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed Gentle Mates45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8810249%50 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed Wildcard63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015962.9%100 W · 59 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304f…af95backed Wildcard62c154.84$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9623757%135 W · 102 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Wildcard60c150$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.540558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Wildcard55c150$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.530247%142 W · 160 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefe8…1edbbacked Wildcard57c137.19$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7110151.5%52 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed Wildcard61c134.76$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.696238.7%24 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Gentle Mates67c134.2$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2922365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc7d…2c2cbacked Wildcard54c131.51$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.122751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf331…2489backed Gentle Mates77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8721252.8%112 W · 100 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c60…1129backed Wildcard60c123.9$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.346141%25 W · 36 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Wildcard47c122.11$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.112,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e5…cc65backed Wildcard18c120.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.522346.2%103 W · 120 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Wildcard55c120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.31,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Gentle Mates46c116.87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8137440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ce…7ecbbacked Gentle Mates41c113.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.472839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c84…8ce8backed Wildcard45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Wildcard28c110.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.861,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65c0…7003backed Gentle Mates53c106.85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.032842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1451…c5c8backed Wildcard19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc48f…37f1backed Wildcard62c100.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.39333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Wildcard62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6268753.9%370 W · 317 L-21.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe865…ae26backed Wildcard25c99.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.142416.7%4 W · 20 L-5.6wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-69.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x183b…b6e9backed Wildcard46c95.65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4432054.4%174 W · 146 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2217…1660backed Gentle Mates38c94.25$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.448045%36 W · 44 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Wildcard27c93.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.211,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3edb…11b8backed Gentle Mates47c80.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.888541.2%35 W · 50 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd001…f718backed Gentle Mates43c77.18$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2328651%146 W · 140 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Gentle Mates37c72.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7237149.6%184 W · 187 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.