Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Hungary (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea08f819c04269a0d55ca4246ef3787919008b2ae1d6b157c691600283deeafe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kazakhstanof Hungary, Kazakhstan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hungary | 20c | 821.87$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Hungary | 11c | 405$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Hungary | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Kazakhstan | 70c | 347$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kazakhstan | 76c | 306.46$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Hungary | 32c | 302.09$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Kazakhstan | 69c | 218.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Kazakhstan | 76c | 215.79$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hungary | 8c | 211$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Hungary | 31c | 183.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kazakhstan | 69c | 170$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Hungary | 29c | 129$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Hungary | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Hungary | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Kazakhstan | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,380 | 40.2%555 W · 825 L | -51.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Hungary | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Kazakhstan | 68c | 35.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…d1b4backed Kazakhstan | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Kazakhstan | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1c…98e8backed Kazakhstan | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hungary (-2.5)this page
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Hungary (-1.5)Hungary won
- Spread: Kazakhstan (-1.5)Hungary won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.