Fifa International · resolved market
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75badd3ca3162a8148e8558d57462b365de673cf0d33b8a7ada1f354b018e4b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Over | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 95 | 2.1%2 W · 93 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 5,994$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.68 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 3,715$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.31 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 28c | 1,769$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.89 | 304 | 31.3%95 W · 209 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 1,450$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.1 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 26c | 1,377$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 4c | 983.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 515 | 14.2%73 W · 442 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 6c | 920.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 855 | 50.6%433 W · 422 L | +54.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 19c | 916.31$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 72c | 627.82$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…5737backed Under | 76c | 400$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Under | 71c | 258$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 156 | 55.1%86 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 22c | 227.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 387 | 45%174 W · 213 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 80c | 187.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…a496backed Under | 76c | 172.78$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 28c | 139.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…2fc0backed Over | 15c | 126.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4def…06e6backed Over | 10c | 105.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 94.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 19c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…9567backed Under | 77c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 78c | 82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Over | 30c | 73.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bb…a47fbacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…5765backed Under | 70c | 64.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…3755backed Under | 77c | 45.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…cce2backed Over | 31c | 34.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…bb2bbacked Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5this page
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Hungary (-1.5)Hungary won
- Spread: Hungary (-2.5)Kazakhstan won
- Spread: Kazakhstan (-1.5)Hungary won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.