Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea34a27d9340ebf00321da6ee7f1a8515cee6ac66d126771eb62a9a7da690e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 811.5$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 12c | 697.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 31c | 320.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.86 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 225.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 222.62$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 57c | 206.34$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.69 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 194.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 28c | 184.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 58c | 179.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 177.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 37c | 164.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 40c | 142.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 142.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 142.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 128.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 50c | 102.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6398…0485backed No | 64c | 101.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…053dbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 96.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 48c | 81.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 80.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 80.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 71.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 67.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 43c | 67.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…b36fbacked No | 66c | 66.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 61.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 78c | 61.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 40c | 59.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 54.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 48.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 57c | 42.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 41c | 40.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 77c | 39.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52df…74f3backed No | 37c | 38.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 37.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef0…6392backed Yes | 38c | 34.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 36c | 33.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f1…65debacked Yes | 39c | 33.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 54c | 23.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 63c | 18.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.