Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea389faa4881164d91d9557310b84bf10fab2e9447935aec6b56dfc379c28e88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 9c | 199.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 52c | 171.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 170.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 52c | 100.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 100.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 48c | 97.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 75c | 84.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 80.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 75.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 74.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 57c | 72.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 72.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 43c | 71.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 62.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 46c | 61.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 57.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 53c | 56.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 27c | 55.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 49c | 51.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 71c | 50.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 62c | 50.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 42c | 48.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 47c | 47.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 46.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 43c | 45.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 45.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 45c | 44.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 43.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 40.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 33c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked No | 36c | 35.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 33.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 43c | 31.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…f949backed Yes | 38c | 31.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 31.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 64c | 27.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 79c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 25.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 46c | 24.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 21.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 19.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 70c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed No | 57c | 18.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…259dbacked Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.