Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea5e03029b3e48486dbcebc9e4fc2a8a733abde0dd01876bb10cf24a3921d726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof OG, Team Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,351 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit | 66c | 1,527$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.7 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 34c | 1,434$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.68 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked OG | 35c | 838.64$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.62 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed OG | 13c | 601.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Spirit | 64c | 515.28$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.74 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacce…72e8backed OG | 35c | 398.9$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.63 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed OG | 14c | 381.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 32c | 372.63$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Team Spirit | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…6774backed Team Spirit | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit | 63c | 206.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed OG | 32c | 199.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Spirit | 80c | 189.17$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed OG | 41c | 171.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Spirit | 70c | 139.84$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Team Spirit | 67c | 133$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed OG | 32c | 132$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed OG | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked OG | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbe…c2f3backed OG | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…5a30backed OG | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Team Spirit | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Team Spirit | 67c | 97.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dab…f602backed OG | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Team Spirit | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Team Spirit | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed OG | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked OG | 30c | 58.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked OG | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed OG | 19c | 52.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked OG | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…1b93backed Team Spirit | 63c | 47.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked OG | 31c | 38.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Team Spirit | 67c | 24.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Team Spirit | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0dd…5f78backed Team Spirit | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Team Spirit | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…f766backed Team Spirit | 72c | 17.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…ca4ebacked Team Spirit | 67c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…c04fbacked Team Spirit | 80c | 16.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…d40bbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: OG vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.