TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Grayson Allen: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,235 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b45…9723backed No67c1,667$1,110 inWon+$557.8626069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No66c652.06$430 inWon+$221.71,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x901a…6d69backed Yes33c615.24$200 inLost-$2001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe702…563fbacked Yes34c588.24$200 inLost-$2003636.1%13 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a9…cc63backed Yes31c543.29$169 inLost-$168.8160%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6138…eac5backed Yes36c534.24$190 inLost-$1902133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No66c450.98$298 inWon+$152.484,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No64c328$209 inWon+$119.1826034.6%90 W · 170 L-20.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x16ef…3792backed Yes33c321.21$106 inLost-$1063729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc006…3c94backed Yes36c280.77$101 inLost-$1011225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x043f…ca25backed No68c275$187 inWon+$886361.9%39 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Yes38c213$81 inLost-$80.768447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeab…6006backed Yes33c143.82$48 inLost-$481040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4792…d1c8backed Yes33c100.55$33 inLost-$331526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No67c81.32$54 inWon+$26.8483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9b…1ca6backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9d5…ea64backed Yes35c33.71$12 inLost-$11.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No66c26$17 inWon+$8.9732866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe051…9ec5backed Yes46c21.85$10 inLost-$10.051154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.