CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - HyperX & Intel Nationals Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeab63c7e41215de3017cb981451cce65590597adb7c6384edb535cb28d39d7bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuestof FlyQuest, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 23c | 1,521$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.33 | 522 | 36.8%192 W · 330 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9c | 1,257$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 328 | 40.2%132 W · 196 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…7982backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 2c | 957.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 1cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…3080backed FlyQuest | 77c | 856.9$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.09 | 132 | 58.3%77 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed FlyQuest | 79c | 789.2$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.27 | 4,040 | 50.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 21c | 495.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 1,062 | 42.2%448 W · 614 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 25c | 470.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.86 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed FlyQuest | 79c | 428.83$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 6,466 | 42.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L | -78.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 25c | 428.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 1,830 | 41.6%762 W · 1,068 L | -68.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FlyQuest | 78c | 411.86$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 2,309 | 45.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L | -62.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x024c…5fa1backed FlyQuest | 77c | 408.23$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 371 | 45.6%169 W · 202 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed FlyQuest | 77c | 257.92$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 24c | 248.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 2,330 | 42.5%991 W · 1,339 L | -71.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 21c | 248.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 2,491 | 41.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L | -114.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…df57backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 22c | 208.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 26c | 194.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 32c | 189.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 2,770 | 37.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L | -139.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked FlyQuest | 75c | 182.86$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 4,661 | 43.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed FlyQuest | 65c | 153.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 24c | 151.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 97 | 29.9%29 W · 68 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…28dcbacked FlyQuest | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x751c…0531backed FlyQuest | 63c | 121.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…a44dbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 22c | 117.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 18c | 111.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 23c | 103.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2,119 | 42.9%909 W · 1,210 L | -66.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed FlyQuest | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 242 | 60.3%146 W · 96 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked FlyQuest | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c8…a25cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked FlyQuest | 74c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 334 | 59%197 W · 137 L | +24.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…f79bbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 25c | 88.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…bcf8backed FlyQuest | 80c | 84.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FlyQuest | 79c | 83.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf51…af6abacked FlyQuest | 70c | 42.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed FlyQuest | 76c | 42.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 543 | 39.4%214 W · 329 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2b…af40backed FlyQuest | 74c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked FlyQuest | 75c | 34.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed FlyQuest | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed FlyQuest | 74c | 25.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c9…234dbacked FlyQuest | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed FlyQuest | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked FlyQuest | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 521 | 44.7%233 W · 288 L | -21.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - HyperX & Intel Nationals Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 WinnerFlyQuest won
- Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 WinnerFlyQuest won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.