Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae80e78f51521d3a50988b7b571720e31dc507a2e6adafe1b909f5b0c080e5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 523.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 12c | 485.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 12c | 471.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 13c | 431.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 8c | 428.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 14c | 365.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 12c | 251.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 17c | 249.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 247.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 13c | 244.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b334backed Yes | 15c | 233.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 220.26$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes | 12c | 199.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 27c | 182.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 14c | 174.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 173.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 8c | 170.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 27c | 168.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 165.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 160.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 12c | 155.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked Yes | 7c | 155.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 8c | 153.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 11c | 113.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 19c | 107.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 94.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5013…765abacked Yes | 16c | 93.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed Yes | 18c | 85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 14c | 80.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 77c | 64.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 24c | 61.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 80c | 52.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 26c | 44.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 25.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 14.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked No | 74c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.