Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65ee50eb6c670be5ea347c20d93c8160307c2623ddc346a3d5edf9e25511638b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 1c | 3,176$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 1,662$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 25c | 746.92$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 615.39$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…3350backed Yes | 35c | 602.51$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 64c | 588$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.9 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 543.71$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 70c | 538.48$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.62 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 33c | 499.92$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 32c | 457.61$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.35 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 446.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 13c | 301.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 20c | 281.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 36c | 253.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 226.23$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.65 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 80c | 224.42$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 64c | 213.13$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 210.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 73c | 204.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 29c | 196.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 175.79$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 163.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 78c | 157.83$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 26c | 150.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 141.54$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 133.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 65c | 129.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 20c | 128.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 103.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 64c | 100.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb08e…bb22backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…418bbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 99.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 36c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 70c | 93.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 91.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 90.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 26c | 85.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 34c | 85.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked No | 72c | 84.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 84.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 69c | 83.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 66c | 82.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 36c | 75.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 71.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 26c | 64.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 61.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 65c | 61.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 31c | 57.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…7e91backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 55.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 19c | 53.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 32c | 53.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…197ebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3512…0e4abacked Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 35c | 48.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 37c | 46.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 46.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 45.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 42.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 41.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 41.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 61c | 41.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 40.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 39.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 38.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 27c | 38.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 37.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 33c | 36.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 36.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 34c | 35.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 67c | 27.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 68c | 25.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.