Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c7debe305332e16d0f3dbc9c74033f04b024e813d2fff7d593ce3906ea722fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 1c | 13,382$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.62 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 8c | 2,269$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.3 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 1,248$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…3350backed Yes | 28c | 674.65$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 28c | 609.86$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.19 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 79c | 600.16$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 28c | 420$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 74c | 407.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.19 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 19c | 335$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 25c | 299.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked No | 74c | 293.8$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 258.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 256$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 9c | 210.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 28c | 191.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…3574backed Yes | 22c | 177.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 176.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…40febacked Yes | 23c | 176.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c4…a460backed Yes | 23c | 176.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 27c | 174.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 163.4$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 17c | 157.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…66ecbacked No | 72c | 154.17$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 151.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 26c | 148.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 130.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 126.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 114.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 28c | 112.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 79c | 109.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 22c | 109$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 21c | 105.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 102$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…ea23backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 91.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d8…9383backed Yes | 17c | 90.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 75c | 84.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…7e91backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 83.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 75.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…b048backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 72.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 16c | 62.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 17c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…dc8cbacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa243…2bb4backed Yes | 25c | 51.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked No | 75c | 49.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 24c | 49.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 47.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 44.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 44.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 27c | 36.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed No | 72c | 33.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 29.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 29.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 79c | 26.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 72c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 72c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 79c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.