Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cee29174742ac7dceec7f9dffece94c7d95090ef3a8dc5f8ee07058384d8c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ed6…2322backed No | 4c | 1,614$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 837.97$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.54 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 800.55$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 22c | 507.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 472.68$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 406$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 386.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 50c | 353.99$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.41 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 29c | 308.4$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.84 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…7834backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 266.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 263.35$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…c0a0backed Yes | 72c | 201.13$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…c40abacked Yes | 19c | 198.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.24 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 186.41$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 168.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 16c | 161.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 64c | 159.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…f2cdbacked Yes | 18c | 149.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 40c | 138.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 77c | 121.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 21c | 121.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 51c | 115.14$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 22c | 113.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 100.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…3350backed Yes | 69c | 94.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 90.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 90.58$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 45c | 90.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 86.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 69c | 83.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed No | 36c | 79.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 56c | 76.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 64c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 30c | 73.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b334backed Yes | 28c | 72.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 70.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 70.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 69.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 69.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 68.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 16c | 65.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 59c | 59.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 76c | 59.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 57.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 56.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 55c | 54.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 45.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 37c | 43.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 39.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked No | 56c | 38.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 36.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 60c | 32.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 31.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 31.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 31.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 53c | 31.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 69c | 30.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 38c | 28.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 54c | 28.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 52c | 27.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 43c | 26.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 55c | 23.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 22.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 66c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 55c | 19.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 75c | 14.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 71c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…fc7cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.