Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb31305e817432683e9fca77fbf4dc80188ffcaf6b275e6ee129f52b1802c878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 1,294$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 504.12$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 47c | 299.31$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.02 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 264$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 236.92$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 208.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 49c | 167.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 46c | 143.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 54c | 139.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 59c | 129.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 116.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 99.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 63c | 98.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 97.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…b4cebacked No | 54c | 92.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 44c | 87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…fe6dbacked Yes | 66c | 83.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 45c | 80.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ee…11b4backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 56c | 79.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 70c | 74.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 78c | 69.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 67.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 57c | 64.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 39c | 64.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 39c | 64.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 61.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 39c | 58.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 27c | 58.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 77c | 56.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 39c | 48.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…1271backed Yes | 69c | 43.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…acb2backed Yes | 54c | 38.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 37.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 46c | 36.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 33.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 30.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 29.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 26.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 57c | 24.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 22.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.