UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb41e389dc594302651ddc05ddb2f85aae236ec18980fdfb08fbf64d07e777bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 31c | 16,237$5,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,032.81 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 69c | 6,884$4,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.04 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Over | 69c | 5,026$3,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Over | 69c | 1,818$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 68c | 1,246$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.76 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…5dc7backed Over | 69c | 1,220$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed Under | 32c | 870.47$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Under | 32c | 865.63$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Over | 68c | 851.65$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.3 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 32c | 796.19$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.78 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 32c | 596.06$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.68 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 68c | 576.7$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.14 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…d0e6backed Over | 69c | 506.83$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 68c | 417.57$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 67c | 338.54$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 68c | 294$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Over | 69c | 231.88$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…b45fbacked Under | 32c | 164$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e52…0ec9backed Over | 69c | 155.35$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 32c | 150.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 69c | 132.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…bd00backed Over | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…8c33backed Under | 32c | 92.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Under | 32c | 63.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 67c | 57.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 103 | 50.5%52 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf463…476ebacked Over | 69c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 32c | 51.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 32c | 47.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf0…bae3backed Under | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked Over | 69c | 30.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Over | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…cc2ebacked Over | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…e016backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…1c4fbacked Over | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 69c | 21.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Nicolle Caliari won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.