Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb4998b1ad761ef38b44d330a012a13591498feb8518ec55fc2fe0730cd39bc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 10c | 702.42$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.83 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 524.34$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.96 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 503.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 26c | 422.28$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.28 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 7c | 303.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.11 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 292.04$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 64c | 279.44$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.59 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 23c | 258.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 235.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 224.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 6c | 217.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 175.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 155$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 20c | 150.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 150.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 21c | 146.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 142.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.06 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 31c | 128.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 19c | 125.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 80c | 125.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 121.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 114.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 15c | 112.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 112.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 17c | 109.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.77 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 89.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 57c | 88.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 24c | 74.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 22c | 67.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 71c | 54.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 51.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 41.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 41.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 39c | 38.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 78c | 35.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 44c | 24.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 17.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 15.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 80c | 13.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.