Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f2568155d47891b6c899c54fcb8061b0d79195d6e660b4a84b3e4cfaf7c86b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 956.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 9c | 612.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 74c | 406.4$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 376$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 19c | 356.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 334.96$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 19c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7f…2e64backed No | 80c | 248.25$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 228.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 8c | 179.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 164.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 132.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 12c | 120.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 113.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 78c | 113$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 112.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 108.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 11c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 35c | 97.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 78c | 97.2$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 44c | 88.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 86.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 86.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 84.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 37c | 81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 76.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 71.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 68.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 56c | 64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 55.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 55c | 54.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 53.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 38c | 52.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3afc…4ae6backed Yes | 35c | 52.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 51.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 38.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…9cd8backed Yes | 34c | 37.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 37.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 31c | 37.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 36.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked Yes | 32c | 36.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…5904backed No | 69c | 34.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 33.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d4…7cf4backed No | 65c | 32.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7406…162bbacked No | 66c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked No | 76c | 30.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed No | 66c | 29.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 60c | 28.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 58c | 27.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca4…118dbacked No | 67c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 21.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…9f83backed No | 70c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 66c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.