CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. Liquid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb6e6cbe41030da12dca0c85e7c0ee3df57c86bb48173ce3d4429da59b50b231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Liquid | 24c | 46,312$11,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,110.7 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked MOUZ | 76c | 33,582$25,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,052.68 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Liquid | 23c | 13,195$3,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,072.46 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed MOUZ | 76c | 12,906$9,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,097.44 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed MOUZ | 77c | 6,785$5,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.44 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed MOUZ | 76c | 2,209$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.29 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Liquid | 23c | 1,582$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.94 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…7260backed MOUZ | 76c | 1,486$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.73 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Liquid | 7c | 1,205$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed MOUZ | 78c | 1,128$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.65 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed MOUZ | 78c | 777.9$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.61 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Liquid | 25c | 680$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked MOUZ | 76c | 657.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x680e…5075backed Liquid | 25c | 609.16$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Liquid | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d67…ab42backed MOUZ | 76c | 421.05$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c6…21bfbacked MOUZ | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed MOUZ | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked MOUZ | 78c | 384.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ | 76c | 336.32$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed MOUZ | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed MOUZ | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 334 | 56.6%189 W · 145 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Liquid | 23c | 254$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked MOUZ | 76c | 153.95$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed MOUZ | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked MOUZ | 78c | 143.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed MOUZ | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed MOUZ | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Liquid | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Liquid | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed MOUZ | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed MOUZ | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 233 | 51.5%120 W · 113 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e80…4dddbacked Liquid | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Liquid | 23c | 86.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Liquid | 12c | 85.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked MOUZ | 76c | 83.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed MOUZ | 79c | 73.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Liquid | 22c | 72.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 317 | 35.6%113 W · 204 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3f…676cbacked MOUZ | 77c | 65.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5be2…8fa3backed MOUZ | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 217 | 62.7%136 W · 81 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed MOUZ | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…e4f4backed MOUZ | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked MOUZ | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked MOUZ | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…2dd6backed MOUZ | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed MOUZ | 76c | 22.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed MOUZ | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf043…61d9backed MOUZ | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked MOUZ | 78c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 106 | 63.2%67 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked MOUZ | 79c | 16.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…0c2cbacked MOUZ | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.