Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb814adb0da9235fb038c8c77b5f73c3cf7ce046073b66aa92f1410e6fa47373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 3,854$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 78c | 1,988$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.36 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 22c | 1,677$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.88 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 1,185$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.6 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…acddbacked Over | 79c | 1,098$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 23c | 967.26$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.36 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 62c | 859.92$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.55 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 822.81$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.77 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Over | 71c | 726.49$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 691.8$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.01 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 76c | 421.05$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Over | 77c | 402.6$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 83 | 63.9%53 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 50c | 399.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Under | 51c | 384.45$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.07 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Over | 54c | 380$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 69c | 339.85$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.99 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Over | 60c | 315$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 44c | 273.64$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 59c | 256.79$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 219$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 210.45$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 33c | 201.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…e875backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 78c | 188$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 55c | 184.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 78c | 181.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 74c | 141$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Over | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234e…fa88backed Over | 80c | 113.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked Over | 78c | 107.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6e…d043backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4025…33e2backed Over | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f74…4fccbacked Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…8122backed Over | 65c | 69.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 64.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 79c | 63.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 60c | 60.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 54c | 55.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Over | 58c | 51.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…630cbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a93…36babacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 63c | 47.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 58c | 45.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 78c | 30.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 43c | 30.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 35c | 29.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f88…293bbacked Under | 46c | 27.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2d…6886backed Over | 56c | 27.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…e037backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Over | 68c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 76c | 17.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.