Music · resolved market
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb94f594874fc99701ba64d5310d85ca168afd838a99fadceff7d13f548b4547
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 27c | 881.85$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…dab0backed Yes | 67c | 811.03$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 7c | 650$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 24c | 372.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 56cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…6385backed Yes | 67c | 360.44$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…107abacked No | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked No | 24c | 235$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 9c | 162$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 159.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 13c | 138.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c0…ff34backed No | 15c | 135.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 75c | 135$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 79c | 128.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 65c | 100.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 13c | 89.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 20c | 84.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked No | 22c | 83.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 59c | 80.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 17c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 62.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 68c | 51.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 46c | 39.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 31c | 32.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.