Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb97017e4251f98df0d61d23732b3589e3fcce0072373d30d675a59c62b12082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,201 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7348…9725backed Yes | 32c | 2,630$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 7c | 1,507$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,502$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 1,384$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…b2c1backed No | 68c | 1,324$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…bfebbacked No | 68c | 1,306$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 2c | 1,097$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 3c | 1,044$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…f448backed Yes | 65c | 770.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 8c | 710.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc503…f8edbacked Yes | 18c | 588$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 11c | 507.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 484.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 5c | 391.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 56c | 303.06$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 44c | 288.63$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 6c | 273.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 273.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 17c | 272.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 269.32$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 265.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 50c | 232.57$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 228$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 13c | 210.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 26c | 195.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 28c | 192$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 17c | 191.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 174.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…8f73backed Yes | 14c | 167$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 69c | 161$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 158.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.84 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x871c…ccebbacked Yes | 37c | 158$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 156.11$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 28c | 149.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 39c | 146$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 144.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 28c | 142.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 130.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…6534backed Yes | 39c | 121.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 43c | 116.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 106.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 40c | 100.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 12c | 96.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 91.64$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 44c | 89.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 64c | 86.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 83.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…73d9backed No | 70c | 71.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…ebfebacked Yes | 28c | 71.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 48c | 69.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 41c | 61.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 61.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 60.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…114abacked No | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 29c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cb…4b5abacked No | 62c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 28c | 55.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…d01dbacked Yes | 40c | 50.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 50.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 30c | 47.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d13…835bbacked No | 79c | 46.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 54c | 45.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 65c | 44.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…2d04backed No | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 72c | 42.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 42c | 40.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…10b7backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 39.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…31e8backed No | 59c | 39.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048d…ae0abacked Yes | 34c | 35.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…20efbacked No | 67c | 35.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2118…27a3backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…8d09backed No | 48c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 73c | 29.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…794bbacked Yes | 42c | 28.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 28.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 35c | 28.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 50c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.