Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fdb07cb466214d335e297a8171f281cdd9731eab9313b41f2ecba871bcf0a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,744 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 1c | 17,651$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.29 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…794bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,037$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 4c | 3,186$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.56 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 14c | 1,758$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.59 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 13c | 1,250$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.32 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 19c | 921.9$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.57 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 44c | 812.99$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.86 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 50c | 738.67$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 17c | 607.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.64 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 539.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…2019backed Yes | 6c | 520.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…f448backed Yes | 20c | 510.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 76c | 446.82$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.73 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 4c | 384.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 318.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.43 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 307.46$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 13c | 301.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…cf32backed Yes | 16c | 289$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 18c | 288.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.48 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…6534backed Yes | 22c | 286.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 20c | 282.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.53 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 50c | 235.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 211.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.71 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 11c | 184.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 55c | 164.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 34c | 163.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 156.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 151.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 149.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 146.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 19c | 144$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 80c | 139.34$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.94 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 17c | 136$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 20c | 134.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 120.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 52c | 120.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 17c | 114.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…2ec8backed Yes | 19c | 98.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…b844backed Yes | 59c | 94.87$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 17c | 83.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 79.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 71c | 79.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 78c | 77.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4191…889ebacked No | 22c | 75.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 16c | 73.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 22c | 69.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 77c | 66.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 63.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 22c | 56.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 20c | 52.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 61c | 43.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 40.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 49c | 34.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 49c | 33.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x439d…6663backed Yes | 36c | 33.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 31.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 29.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked No | 47c | 25.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc73e…2a79backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab20…6b17backed Yes | 78c | 15.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.