Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32d0d8bee836fa3cb2b2536729d4cfc93ccdafe07e4d2ac9b766efa20dd79c09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,624 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 14c | 2,799$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,393.33 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…72abbacked No | 3c | 1,551$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 34c | 1,135$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.76 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 71c | 795.94$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.82 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 9c | 587.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.77 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 572.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.5 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 492.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.96 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 49c | 491.04$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.12 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…af55backed No | 4c | 452.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 2c | 409.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.34 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 13c | 333.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.71 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…f448backed Yes | 30c | 332.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.72 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 311.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 307.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.42 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 8c | 285.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 279$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 7c | 262.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.29 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 262$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 71c | 245.91$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 4c | 240.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.26 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 234.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 207.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 28c | 180.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 158.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0021…7c05backed No | 19c | 154.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 73c | 144.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 14c | 142.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 32c | 141.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 15c | 129.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.95 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 127.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 24c | 126.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.97 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 121.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 120$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 27c | 114.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 37c | 106.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 105.63$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 100.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 97.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 68c | 91.21$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 78c | 91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 77.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…0c4cbacked No | 68c | 73.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 52c | 57.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 35c | 57.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 23c | 56.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 27c | 55.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 50.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…d01dbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2e0dbacked No | 25c | 46.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 39c | 44.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 43.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 40c | 41.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 71c | 39.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…4eb3backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…e694backed No | 70c | 34.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 63c | 30.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 59c | 25.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 48c | 25.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…b844backed Yes | 63c | 24.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 60c | 17.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…2f1cbacked No | 71c | 16.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.