Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb3966206de382eb6b3235aa73a0be4a657ceddfcbb67a22a2ac1a1f0b25c00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 30c | 499.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 311.1$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 27c | 308.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 268.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 30c | 244.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 197.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 183.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 165$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 155.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 133.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 132.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 120.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 117.12$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 30c | 114.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 90.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 79c | 84.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 30c | 77.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 75.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 60.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…9b27backed Yes | 30c | 50.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 44.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 43.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 40.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed No | 76c | 36.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 70c | 31.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…3caebacked No | 76c | 26.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 77c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 22.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 16.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 76c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 67c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.