Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdcbff84feafb52cacee7d1476c61ec241db6fd34d36ed08e58e59843af8bab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 42c | 526.14$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.16 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 499.72$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 15c | 421.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 327.1$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 254.06$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 158.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 147.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 99.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 99.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 66c | 86.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 81.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 69c | 79.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 78.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed Yes | 39c | 73.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 39c | 73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 69.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 69.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 57.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 57.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 48c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 39c | 53.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 46.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 45.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 42.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…b634backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 52c | 38.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 39c | 36.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 35.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 60c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 42c | 33.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 60c | 33.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 38c | 32.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 30.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 30.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 63c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…cdd9backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 62c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 22.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1a…07f0backed No | 64c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 18.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 62c | 17.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.