Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38415f05f90b7b1fbcc3c8332d6d6f5b2160a7b46fde9beaf0a3edddb45d41af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 77c | 828.11$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.79 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 22c | 499.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.05 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 18c | 492.44$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 366.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 326.1$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 24c | 324.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.68 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 295.61$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 74c | 256.16$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 220.48$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 211.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 201.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 188.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 24c | 179.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 175.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 169$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 167.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 16c | 129$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 68c | 111$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 26c | 110$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 45c | 101.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 23c | 94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 85.86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 78.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 78.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 26c | 77.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 74c | 71.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 49c | 68.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 65.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 61.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d1…a3c0backed Yes | 34c | 59.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 56.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 56.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 33c | 55.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 28c | 53.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 50.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 43.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 41.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…5f62backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 79c | 31.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 30.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 27.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 27.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 26.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 25.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed Yes | 63c | 24.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 65c | 24.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 76c | 24.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 65c | 23.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.