Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebd0e4b31d95a65e17e9ab045873215829b8b911edc3f361a6413f84380ebe66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- US Cremoneseof Cagliari Calcio, US Cremonese
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Cagliari Calcio | 19c | 1,854$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.46 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked Cagliari Calcio | 23c | 953.8$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.37 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Cagliari Calcio | 9c | 616.75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed US Cremonese | 79c | 524.81$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Cagliari Calcio | 10c | 185.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed US Cremonese | 79c | 169.21$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked US Cremonese | 79c | 169.21$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 141 | 59.6%84 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked US Cremonese | 78c | 152.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cagliari Calcio | 22c | 133.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Cagliari Calcio | 20c | 120.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Cagliari Calcio | 22c | 91.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8205…5067backed Cagliari Calcio | 22c | 86.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed US Cremonese | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked US Cremonese | 78c | 33.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked US Cremonese | 76c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked US Cremonese | 80c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-1.5)this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Cagliari Calcio (-2.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.